FPC market structure and growth pole
According to Prismark data, from 2011 to 2018, the global FPC output value CAGR was 5.6%, which is higher than the overall compound growth rate of PCB and is the fastest growing segment of PCB. In the past five years, smart phones have always been the most important application area of FPC. From the perspective of changes in the share of downstream applications, smart phones, communications and automotive electronics applications have maintained growth, which is the main driving force for the growth of FPC output.
From the perspective of downstream demand drivers, FPC still has strong growth momentum:
The space and function upgrade requirements of smart phones: due to the squeezing of electronic components due to the increase in battery capacity during the upgrade process of smart phones and the contradiction of the increase of components caused by new functions, FPC is the most flexible electronic module connection The demand for the hub will continue to increase. At the same time, the demand for FPCs for the functional modules of smartphones is also increasing. Since the birth of the iPhone, FPC usage has been constantly refreshed. The number of FPCs in the iPhone XS Max has reached 24, which is more than double that of the iPhone 4. Upgrades, the penetration rate of OLEDs, the upgrade of antenna materials, and the integration of wireless charging, touch control, speakers and other modules have all promoted the increase in FPC usage and value. The iPhone leads Android manufacturers in terms of FPC usage, but the functional upgrade of Android phones will also drive FPC usage to match that of iPhone.
Wearable devices have become a new growth force in the downstream of FPC: From the rapid increase of TWS headsets and smart watches, it is obvious that smart phones are changing to smart watches + TWS headsets in form and usage habits. Superimposed 5G construction advancement, wearable devices are expected Become the main control terminal in the era of the Internet of Things. According to IDC forecasts, in the next three years, the growth of TWS headsets, smart watches, and VR/AR glasses shipments will more than double. Combined with iwatch 4, FPC will reach more than 12, and AirPods 2 will use more than 5 FPC. HTC More than 10 FPCs are used in the released VR device vive cosmos, and the penetration rate of wearable devices will become a new growth pole of FPC during the rapid increase in penetration rate of wearable devices.
Increased automotive electronics rate and new energy vehicles drive FPC growth: With the continuous advancement of automotive intelligence, the automotive electronics rate is increasing year by year. It is expected to reach 34% in 2020 and exceed 50% in 2030. Power batteries, vehicle display modules, smart sensors, and LED lights are the main application scenarios of vehicle FPC. In the process of increasing the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the evolution of driverless technology, the development of radio frequency devices, camera modules, and communication modules The increase in the proportion will drive the increase in FPC usage. According to the forecast of the Zhanxin PCB Industry Research Institute, the CAGR of the automotive FPC market from 2019 to 2022 is about 7%, and the market growth space is about 2 billion yuan.
02
The only way for FPC manufacturers to rise
Different from the decentralized characteristics of the overall PCB industry, because FPC has high technical barriers and the downstream is mainly concentrated in consumer electronics related fields, the FPC industry reflects the characteristics of high concentration. In 2019, Qisheng and Pengding accounted for 50% of the global FPC market, Fujikura, Sumitomo, and Dongshan Precision accounted for less than 10%, and CR5 was about 75%.
The industry is characterized by a high degree of concentration. In addition to the high technical barriers in the industry, the main reason is that the FPC market is mainly concentrated in the consumer electronics field, and customers are highly concentrated. As Apple's terminal products use FPCs much higher than Android vendors, contributing about 50% of the market demand, FPC vendors' entry into Apple's supply chain has become the main path for rapid rise in the development process. Judging from the ranking of global PCB manufacturers in 2019, there are 7 flexible board manufacturers in the top 25 PCB companies, and all 7 companies are Apple suppliers.
Considering the growth momentum of the downstream FPC field, in the short term, the growth of smartphones and wearable devices will be more clear. The FPC demand in this field will still be dominated by Apple. In the long run, the demand growth of automotive electronics will drive the FPC downstream Structural equalization and changes in the downstream demand structure will change the growth path of FPC manufacturers. Therefore, in the short term, due to Apple's contribution to FPC demand, FPC manufacturers will become the main path for development and growth by cutting into Apple's industrial chain.